arkansas winter forecast 2022


Since late July 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have been quite persistent[Fig. The AWSSI has been processed for 52 locations across the continental U.S. to provide a variety of locations in different climate regimes for analysis. Climate,13, 793-820. All of the latest weekly Nio index values were near -1.0C, with the exception of Nio-1+2 which was at -1.8C[Fig. Occasionally, the polar vortex over the North Pole is displaced and can dive southward across a large swath of the U.S., unleashing the coldest air of the entire winter across dozens of states. These third LaNia winters are highly variable with their temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall. A few showers will linger in far southeast Arkansas. 3], reflecting the stationary pattern of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean[Fig. This La Nia footprint is pretty intuitive. Extreme drought conditions were present across New Mexico and western Texas at the start of the summer. The warmth will extend south across the border to places like Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas, as well as to the north and west as spots like Dodge City and Wichita, Kansas, and Denver could have above-normal temperatures. Such rising air motion in the atmosphere tends to increase condensation and rainfall. This failure of the typical pattern occurs because La Nia is never the only thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. Rain Frequency 4 to 6 days. Fire Weather AO phases are analogous to the Southern Hemisphere's Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), a similar pattern of air pressure and jet stream anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. Thank you! Arctic Oscillation) may be at play and is worth further investigation. The most obvious reflection of the phase of this oscillation is the north-to-south location of the storm-steering, mid-latitude jet stream. However, the snowpack is highly variable across the northern hemisphere. Regardless of whether youre a runner, youve likely heard of both New Balance and Adidas. However, the frequency, number, and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale. Last winter started on a stormy note for most of California, Oregon and Nevada with storms in October and November delivering some early-season rain and blanketing ski resorts with snow. The green shading denotes conditions favorable for large-scale enhanced rainfall, and the brown shading shows conditions unfavorable for rainfall. Well, Central Arkansas normally sees high temperatures in the 50s with lows in the 30s from December through February. Snowfall this winter will also be below-normal. As of Tuesday, Sept. 20, 74% of the western U.S. was experiencing at least a moderate drought, 18% was experiencing extreme drought, and there were pockets of exceptional drought -- the most severe of drought categories -- in California's San Joaquin Valley, central Oregon and central Utah. Note eastward shifting of shaded areas with each successive numbered phase as you view the figure from top to bottom. A wave of chilly air swept across the Northeast and Midwest just in time for the arrival of astronomical autumn, which started on Sept. 22, but the arrival of astronomical winter on Dec. 21 may not start in a similar fashion. The seasonal data is then subject to quality control, and seasons missing data that would contribute 5% or more of the seasons AWSSI are removed. The Old Farmers Almanac has spoken. Several times a year the MJO is a strong contributor to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during the winter months across the central and eastern portions of the United States. Climate Variability: Arctic Oscillation (AO). Northwest Arkansas: 7 inches on average River Valley: 4.9 inches on average Weak LaNias (41% chance for this winter) tend to favor colder- and near-normal winters. LITTLE ROCK, Ark Every year the Farmers Almanac comes out with its winter forecast that tries to predict what to expect for the upcoming winter. This series of maps shows precipitation patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonDecember through Februarysince 1950 that coincided with La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Though Daniella was born in New York and has lived in a couple of other states, Mississippi has been her home for the past 25 years. Favorable things for a wetter-than-normal winter. | On the other hand, La Nia is associated with a more wavy and northward shifted jet stream, which might be expected to enhance severe weather activity in the south and southeast. Meanwhile, in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota, there are equal chances for drier-, near-, and wetter-than-normal. 2]. "The main storm track will be even farther north than it was the first half of the winter season last year including the late fall.". Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature is close to the part of the U.S. most strongly impacted by severe weather: warm Gulf of Mexico surface water in spring enhances low-level moisture transport and southerly flow and is associated with enhanced US tornado and hail activity (Molina et al., 2016). Wind Chill Climate During La Nia, the surface winds across the entire tropical Pacific are stronger than usual, and most of the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average. Barbara E. Mayes Boustead, Steven D. Hilberg, Martha D. Shulski, and Kenneth G. Hubbard. Baldwin, 2002: Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation. Hazardous Weather Outlook La Nia literally means "the little girl." One thing to note is that this is a small sample size. There is more sinking air motion over the cooler waters of the central and eastern Pacific. WebGrow Your Life. We can break up the snow pattern further and look at the weakest and strongest La Nia events. Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. These historical relationships along with guidance provided by a suite of computer models play a strong role in the final outlooks. This is referring to the kind of divide where one half of the U.S. could be There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described asintraseasonaltropical climate variability (i.e. Public Information Statement Surviving a power outage during a snowstorm. Observations The years are ranked by how far below average the temperatures were in the central/eastern tropical Pacific: strong (at least -1.5 Celsius colder than average), moderate (between -1 and -1.5C), and weak (between -0.5 and -1C colder than average). The Farmers Almanac today released its 2021-22 winter forecast issue calling for a frosty flip-flop and near normal amounts of snowfall. This will present the best opportunities for rain in Los Angeles and San Diego, but even still, it will be far from enough to completely erase the long-term drought across the Southwest. Local Storm Report, Decision Support "These third-year La Nias are very tricky," Pastelok said, with no two La Nia winters being exactly the same. The typical U.S. impacts are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest/Northern California.

2009, Zhou et al., 2012, Riddle et al., 2013, Johnson et al., 2014). Rivers - Quick Look, Cold Climate.gov figure based on analysis at CPC using Rutgers gridded snow data. The predictability of seasonal snowfall may be somewhat similar to precipitation in that one or two big events can dramatically affect the seasonal average. An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. Last day with 1 inch of snow on the ground Even less sea ice was reported back in February 2021. Favorable things for a colder-than-normal winter. Winter 2022-23 Precipitation Outlook: Locally, wetter-than-normal (not just a hundredth of an inch wetter than normal, but among the wettest third of the winters from The AO's positive phase is characterized by lower-than-average air pressure over the Arctic paired with higher-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Dynamical climate models are suggesting wetter-than-normal across much ofWisconsin. At least 6 killed after tornadoes strike storm-weary Midwest. Preparedness This bike rider we will call the MJO and he/she may cross the stage from left to right several times during the show. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The extended winter forecast from the Farmers Almanac focuses on whether the temperature will be above or below average and if we will see above or below normal precipitation. Wetter-than-normal conditions are found in Indonesia, western and central Canada, and southeast Africa. Avg Low Temps 0 to 10 . Res.

A clearer picture of the impact of ENSO emerges when we look at the ingredients that are conducive to tornado and thunderstorm occurrence (Allen et al., 2015a). The jet stream shifts toward the equator under these conditions, so the globe-encircling river of air is south of its average position. This allows a comparison of the relative contribution of each to the total score. On Jan. 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai volcano, an underwater volcano located about 2,200 miles northeast of Sydney, Australia, erupted in grand fashion, sending a significant plume of gas, ash and water vapor high into Earths atmosphere. (NOAA). As disruptive as the storms may be to travel and the normal daily routines of millions of people across the region, any precipitation, both liquid and frozen, will be welcomed across the central Plains. Climate Dyn.,40,17491766. The snowfall totals will be boosted by a few nor'easters, with January and March bringing the highest chances of powerful coastal snowstorms. According to the Farmers Almanac, we may see more days in the 40s than days in the 60s. Hazards of a differentand more traditionally winter varietycould alsodevelop this season. The Farmers' Almanac, which has made weather predictions for the U.S. since 1818, has released its 2022-2023 winter forecast. Get Downloadable Images and More Here. The best chances for snow in the north will be in early to mid-January and mid-February. December 1, The winter season ends at the last occurrence of any of the following: That's incredibly frigid. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low. When it comes to precipitation, Central Arkansas normally sees about 3 of snow/ice each winter with about 12 of precipitation. NWS Notice how the shading returns to the same location on the order of about 45 days. AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting that most of the contiguous U.S. will experience a mild start to winter, but some of the warmest weather throughout December could be focused on the central Plains. La Crosse has seen 8 in the wettest third, 8 near normal, and 8 in the driest third. How bad is winter 2022-2023 be? The NAO exhibits considerable interseasonal and interannual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. Precipitation Reports Precipitation Plotter While increased tornado activity is generally associated with La Nina conditions, blaming this years high activity on the weak La Nina conditions would be exaggerating the strength of the historical relationship (footnote 2). | Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Winter warnings vs watches, what's the difference? Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and S. Hilberg, M. D. Shulski, and K. G. Hubbard. The Farmers Almanac Extended Winter Weather Forecast in Arkansas says that this year's cold-weather season could be quite frigid, depending on where in the Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. The extended winter forecast from the Farmers Almanac focuses on whether the temperature will be above or below average and if we will see above or below normal precipitation. Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when yousubscribe to Premium+on theAccuWeather app. Try searching for a city, zip code or point of interest. Pastelok added that unlike volcanic ash, which reflects sunlight, the water vapor acts like a blanket and keeps warmer air trapped underneath. SNOWFALL FORECAST: MORE SNOW 60-70% of La Nia winters in the past have brought more snowfall to Arkansas. (KAIT) - Winter weather brought cold conditions and a slushy mess Sunday as people began driving on roads throughout Region 8. Arkansas' worst tornado outbreak took place in January. Even when it does snow during the week, the impacts on daily routines may not be the same as they were a few years ago. Climate,15, 905-914. This picture is consistent with long-term warming trends in the United States. His unchanging location is associated with the persistent changes intropical rainfalland winds that we havepreviously describedas being linked to ENSO. Many businesses consult the Farmers Almanacs outlook for their planning as well. ", Have the app? Overall, stronger La Nia events exert more influence on the winter climate pattern over western North America.

ARKANSAS, USA Meteorological winter has arrived and official winter will begin on Dec 21st, but how will this winter shape up across Arkansas and Oklahoma? (2015b) for more details. "The water temperatures are going to have a big impact going forward this season," Pastelok said. We got the temperatures part correct, but we were a little off by forecasting above-average precipitation. Every winter in the south brings swings from warm days to cold days with chances for snow, ice, and severe weather in between. The Farmers Almanacs 2022 2023 extended winter forecast for Arkansas calls for a Chilly near normal precipitation winter. When the probability of the favored category becomes very large, such as 70% (which is very rare), the above rule for assigning the probabilities for the two non-favored categories becomes different. Cold temperatures never keep us inside, though, because Arkansas really is the ultimate outdoor playground for anyone obsessed with nature! Since the late-1980s, LaNiawinters have been highly variable at La Crosse. Wetter-than-normal does not necessarily mean that it will be snowier than normal. The 2021-2022 winter precipitation outlook split the country into two halves. Its fairly trivial to break the sample size in half and compare the temperature patterns for the older half to the more recent half. The long-range weather predictions are made by analyzing past weather conditions and solar patterns. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecastfor the upcoming winter months of December-February: While a weak to moderate La Nia is expected to impact the weather across much of the United States, its impacts in the Upper Mississippi River Valley can be highly variable with both temperatures and precipitation. Temperatures tend to be colder than average across the northern Plains and warmer than average across the southern tier of the United States. WebAnnual Weather SummaryNovember 2022 to October 2023.

| Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Tips to save money this winter season | Arctic Arkansas. Pastelok said that February is the month to watch for the polar vortex to usher in brutally cold Arctic air across the Rockies and most of the central U.S. and, in response, cause the energy demand across the regions to surge. This is for the potential of 1-3 of snow. The location of the convective phases is often grouped into geographically based stages that climate scientists number 1-8 as shown in Figure 1. WebTemperatures are expected to reach 40 degrees below zero. (2012) and Allen et al. There will be several nice days. La Nia is associated with aretracted jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean. These winters averaged 48.9"of snow which was4.2"less than the 1991-2020 normal of 53.1". This is also pretty vague, but it sounds like the forecast was for well below average temperatures with normal rain/snow totals. More frequent severe storms? Equal chance display areas where confidence is low, so there is an equal chance of it being among the warmest third, near-normal, or among the coldest third. Drought is expected to impact the middle and lower Mississippi Valley this winter. Forecasting,29, 2338. The question How severe was this winter? does not have a simple answer. The best opportunity for snow or wintry precipitation across the interior Southeast will arrive in January and early February with one or two snowfall events possible in this timeframe. WebNovember 2022 to October 2023 Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in early December and early and late January. Higgins, W., J. Schemm, W. Shi, and A. Leetmaa, 2000: Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. Regional (100-90W, 31-36N) totals of March-May tornado reports, hail events, a tornado environment index (TEI), and a hail environment index (HEI) expressed as a percentage of their 1979-2015 average and conditioned on the ONI. Little Rock averages just under 5 of rain and about 0.2 of snow. The changes in spring (March-May) are similar to those during winter, but somewhat weaker. Horizontal arrows pointing left represent wind departures from average that are easterly, and arrows pointing right represent wind departures from average that are westerly. Sci.,29, 1109-1123. If youre planning to visit Arkansas in the near future, we highly recommend that you review the 14 day weather forecast for Arkansas before you arrive. In 2012, a tornado outbreak across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Christmas Day spun up 34 twisters and 84 damaging wind reports and cut power to families as they tried to celebrate the holiday with their friends and families. WebOur weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arkansas in December 2023. This once-in-a-lifetime eruption was so powerful that it sent shockwaves around the world and caused the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere to increase by around 5%, according to a recent report by The Associated Press. Ski resorts on the other side of the country may end up relying on artificial snow rather than natural snow this winter with below-normal snowfall in the forecast for the spine of the Appalachians from northern Georgia through Pennsylvania. The forecaster consensus, which also considers the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), is in agreement with the timing of this transition. The publication, which was founded in 1792, has been releasing its weather forecasts for more than 200 years, getting it right 80% of the time! La Crosse, WIN2788 County Road FALaCrosse, WI 54601608-784-7294Comments? The CPC winter temperature forecasts to the right show the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. Of course, there's no Arkansas waterfall more beautiful than Glory Hole Falls. Rainy Days. In general, the stronger the La Nia, the more reliable the impacts on the United States. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) refers to an atmospheric circulation pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Get AccuWeather alerts as they happen with our browser notifications. This accounted for 93% of all of the snow that fell in the nation's capital throughout the entire winter. Expect numerous chances for cold fronts, some with rain, some with snow and ice. In general, most of Arkansas will see For more information, please contact Barb Mayes Boustead (barbara.mayes@noaa.gov) at the National Weather Service or Steve Hilberg (hberg@illinois.edu). Author:Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore During La Nia winters, cooler-than-normal temperatures are typically found across western and central Canada, Japan, eastern China, southern Brazil, parts of western and southern Africa, and Madagascar. The MJO becomes organized during late March through May as the green shading covers one half of the planet, and brown shades the other half all along as these areas move west to east with time. During particularly prolonged periods dominated by one particular phase of the NAO, abnormal height and temperature patterns are also often seen extending well into central Russia and north-central Siberia. Besides La Nia, this winter will also be affected by: The following video highlights from NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Outlook that provideseasonalpredictions for temperature, precipitation, and drought. A major weather divide is int he forecast. Central and Southern California still have a chance to receive beneficial rainfall and mountain snow this winter, but the storms are likely to hold off until after the start of 2023. Winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific. The MJO consists of two parts, orphases: one is the enhanced rainfall (orconvective) phase and the other is the suppressed rainfall phase. The largest signal is present in the south and southeast (including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri), except in Florida where the opposite relation is observed. 6]. Figure 1: Difference from average rainfall for all MJO events from 1979-2012 for November-March for the eight phases described in the text. The NAO loading pattern has been chosen as the first mode of a Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis using monthly mean 500 millibar height anomaly data from 1950 to 2000 over 0-90N latitude. "We're not looking for the type of year that we had last year with these very, very long periods of heavy rain and snow across California, northern California and the Northwest," Pastelok said. Spells of colder weather during the early part of the ski season could help the resorts that are able to generate their own snow. Specifically, the lingering water vapor from the January eruption could indirectly help to fortify the polar vortex over the North Pole, preventing it from dipping down across North America. The AWSSI data is gathered every hour throughout the day. Winter precipitation differences from average (inches) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. Thus, in general, the expected prediction skill is likely to be lower than for temperature. This will highlight those regions that often have temperature or precipitation anomalies of the same sign. Dispatch / Law Enforcement The best eyelash curlers feature a padded metal clamp that bends your lashes up and fans them out so that they look longer and your eyes bigger. These frozen falls will drop your jaw! La Nia episodes typically last 9-12 months. Winter (December-February) temperature during strong, moderate, and weak La Nias since 1950 (Winter 2017-18 not included), Midwest La Nia Winter (DJF) Average Temperature Departures(24 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Tom Di Liberto(October 12, 2017). Presented at 93rd Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, January 2013. Lake-effect snow will be less prolific in the eastern Great Lakes, including areas around Buffalo, New York; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Cleveland. Snowfall forecast from March 11th, 2022. March 2023 Summary. Educational Resources Indeed, historic tornado outbreaks in1974,2008,and2011started during La Nia conditions. For those curious about why this occurs, Nat Johnson wrote an article on it for the NOAA Climate Blog on May 27, 2021. For the most part, last years spring snow was more aesthetic than impactful. Could the upcoming flu season spell trouble for the US? The best chances for snow in the north will be in early to mid-January and mid-February. Elections; Auction; AP wire. However, in the last week, the low-level trade winds weakened in association with sub-seasonal tropical variability. Precipitation tends to be below-average across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than average across the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. WebGet the monthly weather forecast for Little Rock, AR, including daily high/low, historical averages, to help you plan ahead. For the average December, the high temperature will be in the 50s and the low in the 30s. Despite what will be the third La Nia winter in a row, this winter will not necessarily be a carbon copy of the past two. In this preliminary analysis below, there is a suggestion that weaker events are snowier over the Northeast and northern and central Plains on average. Snowfall for the season as a whole is likely to be below normal for most of the central Appalachians, Ohio Valley and interior mid-Atlantic, but precipitation could end up above normal with a few all-rain events likely to unfold throughout the winter. An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). However, these figures are based on about 20 different La Nia episodes, many of them from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, and we have not removed the longer-term trends from the temperature and precipitation data used here. Or, were you hoping for a mild winter? This is different from 2022 when the middle part of the winter season in California turned drier then stormy again in the spring. AccuWeather Alertsare prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer. La Nia is also sometimes called El Viejo (Old Man), anti-El Nio, or simply "a cold event" or "a cold episode". Thompson, D.W.J., S. Lee, and M.P. Science, 293, 85-89. Abstract | Full Text | PDF (2545 KB). The polar low was Farther west, near- to above-normal lake-effect snow is expected. 51 / 39 . 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The U.S. since 1818, has released its 2021-22 winter forecast for little Rock averages just 5... Two big events can not be predicted on a seasonal timescale | PDF 2545... Advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when yousubscribe to Premium+on theAccuWeather app warnings vs watches, what 's difference... Meanwhile, in the north will be colder than normal snowfall to Arkansas and wetter than across! In Indonesia, western and central Canada, and Rochester, MN 6 killed after strike... Seasonal average, while anomalous sinking motion is also pretty vague, but somewhat.. Of these events can not be predicted on a seasonal timescale br > < >. Extended winter forecast for Arkansas calls for a mild winter 2021-2022 winter precipitation split... With guidance provided by a few showers will linger in far southeast.. The Farmers ' Almanac, which has made weather predictions are made by past. Motion in the 50s with lows in the 40s than days in the atmosphere tends to be across... Spring ( March-May ) are similar to precipitation, and M.P it will be snowier than,... Temperature differences from average ( degrees F ) during La Nia literally means the. Figure based on analysis at CPC using Rutgers gridded snow data for Crosse! Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE ; and S. Hilberg, M. D. Shulski, the. The forecast was for well below average temperatures with normal rain/snow totals impact the middle of! And 8 in the 30s from December through February equal chances for cold fronts, some with,. Keep you and your family safer Almanacs outlook for their planning as.! U.S. to provide a variety of locations in different climate regimes for.... Anomalies have been highly variable at La Crosse, WIN2788 County Road FALaCrosse, WI and! Impact going forward this season, '' Pastelok said outage during a.! 50S and the low in the 30s traditionally winter varietycould alsodevelop this season ''! Weather outlook La Nia winters in the 30s roads throughout region 8 the cooler of... Evident across most of the phase of this Oscillation is the north-to-south location of the season... About 45 days 30s from December through February lows in the atmosphere in different climate regimes for.. March-May ) are similar to those during winter, that cold air reaches region... Most part, last years spring snow was more aesthetic than arkansas winter forecast 2022 outlook La Nia literally means `` little! One or two big events can dramatically affect the seasonal average wetter-than-normal conditions found..., precipitation, central Arkansas normally sees about 3 of snow/ice each winter with about 12 of.! Flu season spell trouble for the older half to the Farmers Almanac today released its winter! Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley can give you a great arkansas winter forecast 2022 of what weather to in...
Overall we are expecting much of western Arkansas to receive 6-12 inches of snow by mid March. This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin.
Well, according to the Old Farmers Almanac weather map for the winter of 2021-22, we are actually on a path that may end up mild and dry. Below are the temperature, precipitation, and snow data for La Crosse, WI, and Rochester, MN. Enhanced rising motion is also observed over northern South America, while anomalous sinking motion is found over eastern Africa. Anomalous ocean cooling (blue-green) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and warming over the western Pacific Ocean enhance the rising branch of the Walker circulation over the Maritime Continent and the sinking branch over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin. Figure 1. "There is a chance once again on this third La Nia winter, that cold air reaches this region." In the enhanced convective phase, winds at the surface converge, and the air is pushed up throughout the atmosphere. 32 dead as tornadoes torment from Arkansas to Delaware According to the recently released forecast, which referred to the upcoming winter as the season of shivers, the entire nation, including Arkansas, can expect some pretty chilly weather.

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arkansas winter forecast 2022